The Next Pope: Why The Winner Needs The Backing Of A Hybrid Coalition.

by Anura Guruge

Click to ENLARGE.

Guruge 2020 Papabili Series — #V

You need a Supermajority, i.e., two-thirds of the votes cast, to be elected pope.

Coming up with this supermajority was a STROKE of genius. Yes, it sure complicates matters (and used to lead to interminably long elections) but it makes sure that the elected pope enjoyed a genuine mandate from his electorate. [It is also the case that one-thirds of the electorate can always block a candidate they do not want.]

The next conclave (unless Francis changes the 120 max ruling) is likely to have between 117 to 120 electors. Let’s, for this calculation, say 118. That means 79 electors MUST get behind the winner. [It also means that 39 can always BLOCK an election.]

Cobbling together 79 votes is not easy. Harder than most realize.

The ONLY group of electors that exceed that number is the total of active Archbishops & Bishops put together. But, they are NOT a homogeneous block that will always vote together. Geography for a start, plays a role before the ever crucial ideology kicks in.

Geography is interesting. Europe no longer can rustle up the majority and have been unable to do so for nearly (ir over) 90-years.

So, study the above chart. It gives you a good picture of the factions at play.

Related posts:
Check Category ‘Next Pope’.
Search ‘cardinals‘, ‘consistory‘ & ‘pope‘.

by Anura Guruge

24 thoughts on “The Next Pope: Why The Winner Needs The Backing Of A Hybrid Coalition.

  1. prospero

    I suppose that you are informed about the book from E. Pentin, “The Next Pope: The Leading Cardinal Candidates” which in fact is not published yet but can already be found on Google Books. The book contains the dossiers of 19 cardinals who according to the author and his collaborators could be potential papabili. Ten of these candidates are outspoken conservatives or traditionalists some of them may be definitely called pope Francis´ fiercest adversaries. According to their worldview it is more or less evident that the next pope would have to stop the actual policy of openess.
    As to the candidates the author embraced some disputable concepts :
    1. He states that a coming conclave could elect a pope from the USA (O´Malley or Burke).Concerning this question you repeatedly declared your caveat.
    2. The same counts for a German (Cardinal Müller) – it would be a surprise if the cardinals will decide to elect him.Even though Ratzinger is “papa emeritus” he is still alive and it may also happen that he would live longer than Francis. In this case a German pope will be absolutely unthinkable.
    3. The list also contains five cardinals who are presumably too “young” to be the next pope – these are Erdö (Hungary), Eijik (The Netherlands),Parolin and Zuppi (Italy) and Tagle (Philippines).

  2. prospero

    Did you already dip a little bit into Pentin´s book ? I What do you make of his candidates´ list ?

    1. Anura Guruge Post author

      I just started looking in Google Books. That is quite THE list. He might as well have included all the senior electors. I had looked in Amazon BUT they just had the blurb. YOU know where I stand, rightly or wrongly. I THINK I have an advantage over him — & OTHERS — in that I am totally, utterly non-partisan. I hope YOU KNOW & APPRECIATE that I am NOT a BELIEVER. Don’t believe in any religion. DO NOT subscribe to life after death. Do not believe in a solu. So, I study popes without a religious bias. I am NOT sure whether we will get a major swing back to a conservative pope. My mantra. No exotics. That is a definite. Ouellet looks better by the day. Nothing extreme. This could be a long conclave!
      I have been V. busy on a project of my own. I tend to set my own arbitrary deadlines. Two weeks ago I said, I will have it done by July 4. Today. AND IT WILL. SMILE. Now need to proof it. It will be available ahead of Pentin’s book. SMILE. But, this is NOT a Next Pope book. This is SIMPLIFIED conclave book. I might write a PITHY Next Pope book just to counter Pentin — for the hell of it. (Am I allowed to say ‘Hell’ in this context.) SMILE. Must go. Will read Pentin on Google. SMILE. Enjoy. Stay safe. You know YOU can e-mail me: Much better.


  3. prospero

    The development of the next Conclave certainly depends primarily on Pope Francis´ longevity and his further efforts to reshape the College of Cardinals. I Only on such a condition one may be sure that they will decide on the election of a pope who is ready to continue the actual way.

    Thanks a lot and be sure that I will contact you

  4. prospero

    A addendum to our discussion: Cardinal Ouellet nothwithstanding his age is still a prized contender for the papacy – but I wonder that outside Canada nobody mentioned his brother´s case. In 2009 Paul Ouellet was convicted for sexual abuse of two underage girls. That year it was for the first time that Catholic dignitaries on a great scale admitted that the crime of sexual abuse in the Church is a widespread fact.
    No wonder that Ouellet who then was archbishop of Quebec preferred to keep silent This attitude he kept during the first years when he was called to the Vatican. As Pope Francis insists on a zero tolerance policy it is quite evident that Ouellet now is bound to run with the pack.

    1. Anura Guruge Post author

      Thank YOU. YOU are a TREASURE. So glad you keep me posted, up to-date & hopefully on track. Did NOT know about Ouellet’s brother. Had to look it up. I will get back. Thinking. THANKS. Keep on sending me STUFF — please.

      1. prospero

        If you are interested throw a glance on this:
        George Weigel, The Next Pope: The Office of Peter and a Church in Mission (Google Books)

  5. prospero

    Yesterday I got that book – honestly said nothing special. Maybe Dolan is canvassing for the next conclave 🙂

  6. prospero

    It´s true Weigel doesn´t name possible candidates – but he develops his profile of the next pope and reading between the lines you can get a quite clear idea who could be a promising contender,

      1. prospero

        Two day after the official release I got the German translation which obviously received Weigel´s ” blessing” and was published by a Catholic company known for their traditional views

      2. Anura Guruge Post author

        Wow. You are KEEN. How does the German price compare with U.S.? Your English is VERY GOOD. Can’t you read it in English? You prefer German — of course. What did Weigel write it in? Do you know/realize that 99% of American Catholics THINK that JP II spoke English all the time & that he did all of his conversations in English. I did some research. As you know he wanted the Gospel read to him as he was dying. I wondered what LANGUAGE it would have been in: Latin, Italian, Polish … 100% Americans I asked, immediately said ‘English’! I think it was in Polish. What do YOU think? Maybe you know. Maybe you were THERE. SMILE. I think you are well connected in the Church. SMILE.

  7. prospero

    Languages always have been my passion…as for my relationship to natural sciences I´d better keep silent 🙂 .
    Concerning JP II I remember that his “eternal secretary” Dziwisz once told that the pope´s last words were in Polish.
    Speaking about Church connections I have to disappoint you :)..there is nothing special but I am certainly interested in such subjects.

  8. prospero

    If it means something to you – I wrote a review of Weigel´s book and posted it on amazon

    Certainly it has to be translated )…All the best and keep cool ;);

    1. Anura Guruge Post author

      Thank YOU. I just TRANSLATED it & started reading. WOW. It is long. Seems nearly as long as the book. SMILE. I will read all of it. Have been CRAZY busy with the comet. My twin interests: popes & comets. Next week, with the comet gone, I will be back to popes. SMILE. Thanks. Keep up the good work.


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