.by Anura Guruge
Some Of The Blizzard Related posts:
>> Blizzard Of 2013: Update From Alton IV — Feb. 8, 2013.
>> Blizzard Of 2013: Update From Alton III — Feb. 8, 2013.
>> Blizzard Of 2013: Now We Can Joke — Feb. 8, 2013.
Hit me like a ton of bricks when I saw all the business closed in Providence and Boston today. Many also closed early yesterday. There won’t be much foot traffic in Boston tomorrow — the 1st (non-parade) Sunday of Chinese New Year.
This blizzard will have a negative impact on 1Q GDP.
Last quarters GDP was negative, though barely. But, it was negative — and Hurricane Sandy was responsible for some.
Definition of a recession: two back-to-back quarters of negative GDP.
1Q GDP was tenuous to begin with thanks to all of the continued mindless political wranglings in D.C. — and you know who I blame for much of that.
A recession is really but a technical indicator and by the time we are told that we are in a recession it could very well be in the rear-view mirror. Remember the definition: two negative back-to-back quarters of GDP. So by design it is a trailing indicator. We will only find out about 1Q GDP in 2Q. 2Q, thanks to President Obama, could be blowout. End of recession.
The President doesn’t have to worry about re-election and I already feel confident that Hillary will easily win 2016. I can’t believe I am saying that. In 2008 I detested her. I was never a Clinton fan during their Presidency. I spent so much time circulating Clinton jokes, so, so many about cigars and that blue dress, in the mid-1990s. I was even compiling a dossier on Hillary’s alleged dalliances. Remember that guy who shot himself in a park? Well that was then, and this is now. I started to warm up to her once she started embracing my man. She did a bang up job as Secretary of State. She made Obama proud. I have come to like and even admire Bill! I really have changed my stripes. This is why those that knew me in the 1990s are beside themselves as to my 180° change in political leanings. Since they are all conservatives, as was I, they don;t really like me much anymore. Some are holding out hope that I will see the light and change stripes again.
So a quick, passing recession precipitated by Nemo will not have any political ramifications. We might get a 400 point one-day drop in the Dow. That too will pass.
But, just keep an eye on this potential recession — and remember where you first read about it.