Tag Archives: ice-outs

Lake Winnipesaukee 2015 Ice-Out Ici: Friday, April 24 At 4:34 pm.

Click to ENLARGE.

Anura Guruge December 2014 thumbnail
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by Anura Guruge


Related posts:
>> 2015: If it is Fri. April 24 …
>> 2015:
Pelting precipitation …
>> 2015:
Already happened 19 times.
>> 2015:
Not even close …
>> 2014 Ice-Out: middle of road.
>> 2014 Ice-Out, April 23.
>> Lake Winnipesaukee Ice-Out, Analysis.

++++ SearchWinnipesaukee’ for other posts >>>>


 Well, Lake Winnipesaukee 2015 Ice-Out as I predicted on Monday, and reiterated yesterday, happened on Friday, April 24, 2015. The official time was 4:34 pm. Shame that they did not take some poetic license with that so that we could all have said that 2015 ice-out ici was 4/24 at 4:24. C’est la vie.

Now, you have to please excuse me. Given that by nature and profession I am somewhat scientific — and have a love of dates and calendars — I can’t just go along that ice-out was on April 24. The problem, as I have oft stated, has to do with leap-years. This was not a leap-year. If it was, TODAY, April 24 would have been April 23. Get it. So I count ice-out in terms of actual days since January 1 of the year. So today, April 24, 2015, (not being a leap year), is day 113. OK? Are cool on that. Day 113.

I went through the numbers last night. But I will re-cap. 

Ice-Out has happened 12 times on the 113th day, in 1896, 1912 & 2008, which were all leap years, that having been on April 23rd. [In 1920, another leap year, April 24 was the 114th day!]

During the 128 years we know of ice-out has happened 82 times PRIOR to the 113th day; i.e., 64% of the time.

In 34 years the ice-out happened on the 114th day of later.

The record being the 132nd day in 1888; i.e., May 12, 1888.

The last time it was April 24 per se was 1997.

The last time it was the 113th day was much more recent, i.e., 2008.

Here are two charts. I might enforce copyright on both IF they are not attributed when reused. Click to ENLARGE.

ice2015iciasaa

Fluctuation is THE pattern. A very nice “W” towards the end.

2015iceoutapr24

From 1986, which is when I moved to New Hampshire.


IF Lake Winnipesaukee 2015 Ice-Out Happens On Friday, April 24, 2015.

. 2015 The green MGBs are out. crocuses in Alton, April 19.Anura Guruge December 2014 thumbnail
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by Anura Guruge


Related posts:
>> 2015:
Pelting precipitation …
>> 2015:
Already happened 19 times.
>> 2015:
Not even close …
>> 2014 Ice-Out: middle of road.
>> 2014 Ice-Out, April 23.
>> Lake Winnipesaukee Ice-Out, Analysis.

++++ SearchWinnipesaukee’ for other posts >>>>


iecoutapr242015sadfad

Click to ENLARGE.

April 24, 2015, in this NON Leap Year, will be the 113th day of the year. Ice-Out has happened 12 times on the 113th day, in 1896, 1912 & 2008, which were all leap years, that having been on April 23rd. In 1920, another leap year, April 24 was the 114th day!

During the 128 years we know of ice-out has happened 82 times PRIOR to the 113th day; i.e., 64% of the time.

In 34 years the ice-out happened on the 114th day of later.

The record being the 132nd day in 1888; i.e., May 12, 1888.

The last time it was April 24 per se was 1997.

The last time it was the 113th day was much more recent, i.e., 2008.


Sound Of Spring In New Hampshire — The Peepers + Some Sights & More Crocuses.

.Anura Guruge December 2014 thumbnail
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by Anura Guruge


2015 crocuses, Alton, N.H., April 19.

Related posts:
>> 2014: Sounds of Peepers.
>> 2015: Crocuses and Green MGB.
>> 2015: Winnipesaukee ice-out.

++++
Check Category ‘Alton for MANY other posts
>>>>
++++ Search ‘Spring’ for lots of other posts too >>>>


The Peepers have have been in fine voice
since last Friday.
Had the dogs in quite a tizzy.
They jumped into the swamp to check.
All the Peeping stopped, at once. Quite funny.

I videoed this same swamp last Spring.
It was quite a hit.

So this is the 2015 version.
Prospect Mountain Road, Alton, New Hampshire.
(West on Route 28 close to Barnstead).
This the road that I run on — most days.
1.25 miles uphill — then 1.25 downhill.

Click to access YouTube video. Read the description. The dogs are introduced there, if YOU don’t know them already. They run, off leash, with me. Turn up the VOLUME. Quite impressive.


Pictures taken on Prospect Mountain Road,
Wednesday, April 22, 2015 — Earth Day.

Click to ENLARGE.

Found this “Peeper Ale” bottle, from Maine,
up the road. Despite the signs about throwing rubbish
there is a lot of litter on this beautiful road.

The most unusual object I have seen was a discarded,
purple, female, plastic vibrator. The mind boggles.
Obviously somebody threw it out of a car or truck.
I guess they were still frustrated!

Very apropos. I hope they stopped and listened to the peepers as they supped the ‘Peeper Ale’. Like the picture and the “Do what’s right” message.

Taylor ‘Blueberry Farm’; about 1/2 way up my climb. The swamp with the peepers is at the bottom.

The trees are still bare. One of these is the crab apple tree that bore the LAST red apple in New Hampshire. Find my post.

There is still snow on the ground, in the shade, at the top.

The dogs love the cold, melted snow pools.


Pelting Precipitation Will Precipitate Lake Winnipesaukee 2015 Ice-Out — April 25 Looks Promising.

The green MGBs are out.

. 2015 The green MGBs are out. crocuses in Alton, April 19.Anura Guruge December 2014 thumbnail
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by Anura Guruge


2015 crocuses, Alton, N.H., April 19.

Related posts:
>> 2015:
Already happened 19 times.
>> 2015:
Not even close …
>> 2014 Ice-Out: middle of road.
>> 2014 Ice-Out, April 23.
>> Lake Winnipesaukee Ice-Out, Analysis.

++++ SearchWinnipesaukee’ for other posts >>>>


Click to ENLARGE.






Alton Bay, N.H. — from the overlook and from town.
Monday, April 20, 2015 4:48 – 5:00pm.
Gray, rainy and rather miserable.


The rain, which started in earnest around 2pm on Monday, April 20, 2015, has been relentless and at times punishing.

It will do a job on the ice. This rain, if it continues for another 24 hours, per the predictions, will expedite the ice-out by 3 to 4 days.

So my revised estimate is that we will see ice-out by this Friday, April 24, 2015.

Ice-Out Traditions: When I ran “Waiters on Water” (WOW), food takeout to Winnipesaukee Islands by boat and jet-ski, there was a family with a house on the east-side of Locks Island who would get there as soon as Glendale was ice-free so that they could have cocktails over the first weekend, ideally on their dock, with ice they scooped out of the lake. They would order takeout to go with the drinks. It was neat. Nice people.


‘Lily Pond’ Was Ice Free April 16, 2015, So Lake Winnipesaukee Ice-Out Expected 7 – 10 Days After That.

.Anura Guruge December 2014 thumbnail
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by Anura Guruge


Related posts:
>> 2015:
Already happened 19 times.
>> 2015:
Not even close …
>> 2014 Ice-Out: middle of road.
>> 2014 Ice-Out, April 23.
>> Lake Winnipesaukee Ice-Out, Analysis.

++++ SearchWinnipesaukee’ for other posts >>>>


lilypond

Click to ENLARGE. From Google Maps. ‘Lily Pond’ in Gilford, New Hampshire on the banks of Lake Winnipesaukee.


iceoutapr182015

Click to ENLARGE.

Per the local folk lore ice-out on the BIG Lake, Lake Winnipesaukee, usually takes place 7 to 10 days after ice-out on miniscule ‘Lily Pond’, in Gilford, on the perimeter of the Laconia Airport. With Lily Pond clear as of April 16 the current belief is that we should see the Big Lake ‘ice free’ around April 24 – 27. My druthers is that it will be towards the latter part of this range, i.e., April 26, April 27. Maybe even as far as May 1 or May 2.

Yes, a couple of days of wind will expedite matters.

April 26 will be quite late. Ice out on, or after, April 26 has only happened 26 times out of 128. 20% of the time.

April 19, today, is THE average.

May 12 is the longest — on record.

I have seen, in 2001, a May 2 ice-out.


In 19 Out Of 128 Prior Years Lake Winnipesaukee (N.H.) Ice-Out Had Already Happened By April 9.

iceouts19802015.Anura Guruge December 2014 thumbnail
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by Anura Guruge


Related posts:
>> 2015:
Not even close …
>> 2014 Ice-Out: middle of road.
>> 2014 Ice-Out, April 23.
>> Lake Winnipesaukee Ice-Out, Analysis.

++++ SearchWinnipesaukee’ for other posts >>>>


19outof128prior

Click to ENLARGE.


Yes, of course, particularly given the the snow last night and the lingering cold temperatures, I invariably devote a few seconds a day thinking about when we might get ice-out on the BIG Lake, Lake Winnipesaukee — especially since I want to work out when I should stop thinking about walking on the ice.

Given that I have an Excel spreadsheet of all the ice-out dates going back 128 years, I just did a quick ‘look’. Things in 2015 are not as bleak as they first appear. We have only had ice-out, by now, in 19 (of the 128) prior years. So that is not bad.

The median day for ice-out (depending on whether it was a leap year or not) is April 16/April 17. So we still have nearly a week.

The average for ice-out is April 19. That is 10 days away.

So now YOU TOO know.


Lake Winnipesaukee (N.H.) Ice-Out 2015: I Remember Ice-Outs By This Time Of The Year.

.Anura Guruge December 2014 thumbnail
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by Anura Guruge


Related posts:
>> 2014 Ice-Out
: middle of road.
>> 2014
Ice-Out, April 23.
>>
Lake Winnipesaukee Ice-Out, Analysis.

++++
SearchWinnipesaukee’ for other posts
>>>>


iceouts19802015

Click to ENLARGE.


April 4th is my eldest daughter Danielle’s birthday. So that used to be a convenient marker for me by which to time Lake Winnipesaukee ice-outs. I started living waterside on the Lake in 1996. In 1998 and 1999 Ice-Out was on April 7th & 8th, respectively. So I kind of got it into my head that having ice-out around Danielle’s birthday is a possibility.

I got thinking about it today because the mind boggles as to when we will have ice-out in 2015. So I pulled up this ‘view’ from the Lake Winnipesaukee ice-out spreadsheet I have maintained since 2013. So just a heads up. It makes interesting reading.