by Anura Guruge
>> 2015: If it is Fri. April 24 …
>> 2015: Pelting precipitation …
>> 2015: Already happened 19 times.
>> 2015: Not even close …
>> 2014 Ice-Out: middle of road.
>> 2014 Ice-Out, April 23.
>> Lake Winnipesaukee Ice-Out, Analysis.
++++ Search ‘Winnipesaukee’ for other posts >>>>
Well, Lake Winnipesaukee 2015 Ice-Out as I predicted on Monday, and reiterated yesterday, happened on Friday, April 24, 2015. The official time was 4:34 pm. Shame that they did not take some poetic license with that so that we could all have said that 2015 ice-out ici was 4/24 at 4:24. C’est la vie.
Now, you have to please excuse me. Given that by nature and profession I am somewhat scientific — and have a love of dates and calendars — I can’t just go along that ice-out was on April 24. The problem, as I have oft stated, has to do with leap-years. This was not a leap-year. If it was, TODAY, April 24 would have been April 23. Get it. So I count ice-out in terms of actual days since January 1 of the year. So today, April 24, 2015, (not being a leap year), is day 113. OK? Are cool on that. Day 113.
I went through the numbers last night. But I will re-cap.
Ice-Out has happened 12 times on the 113th day, in 1896, 1912 & 2008, which were all leap years, that having been on April 23rd. [In 1920, another leap year, April 24 was the 114th day!]
During the 128 years we know of ice-out has happened 82 times PRIOR to the 113th day; i.e., 64% of the time.
In 34 years the ice-out happened on the 114th day of later.
The record being the 132nd day in 1888; i.e., May 12, 1888.
The last time it was April 24 per se was 1997.
The last time it was the 113th day was much more recent, i.e., 2008.
Here are two charts. I might enforce copyright on both IF they are not attributed when reused. Click to ENLARGE.