Tag Archives: income

How Did The Experts Manage To Get Today’s Job Report So, So Wrong. But, I Loved It. Perfect. Goldilocks.

Anura Guruge, June 8, 2013.



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by Anura Guruge


Related posts:
++++ Check CATEGORY ‘Investments’ for other related posts >>>>


Monthly jobs number for the last 13 months. Dec. 2013 is the last, stunted column on the right.

Monthly jobs number for the last 13 months. Dec. 2013 is the last, stunted column on the right.

I try to watch as many job reports as I can, every Thursday for the ‘weekly unemployed’ and ‘first’ Friday of each month ‘for the household’. Given that I watch CNBC first thing in the morning this is not too hard to do. I was looking forward to today’s jobs number. I know that for a week experts were calling, unanimously, for a 200,000(+) number. I was skeptical, but was willing to go along. Unlike the experts, who now have so much egg on face, I have refused to put ANY credence on the ADP number — which comes out on the Wednesday before the Friday’s job number. I don’t trust ADP. I think they make up that number. Yet, again the experts have had to admit that the ADP number let them astray.

I don’t get these experts. For 20 years or so I was a self-employed expert — on IBM networks, IBM mainframes and enterprise networking. I was out there weekly, if not daily, making prognostications and claims. Of course I never got it all right, BUT I can’t ever remember being wrong to the scale that these experts are, month in, month out.

Just seconds before the 8:30 am jobs number today, CNBC, in their boastful way, predicted that the experts were calling for a 200,000+ number. Then the Hampton Pearson read out the number. 74,000. Though Hampton (who I like for his gravitas) was continuing you could feel the STUNNED silence in the studio. It was just like the day after Obama’s reelection. The CNBC talking heads had yet again been caught with their pants down playing with their privates on air. I just laughed.

I knew, viscerally, that the low number wasn’t bad for the market! Bad number, less tapering. So, I was cool. Yes, the Dow has gone down a bit right now but I am not at all concerned about the trajectory.

I, given that I am no longer a Republican, feel bad for the unemployed. It has to suck. The drop in the participation rate bothers me GREATLY. I should be included in that. I gave up trying to look for work 5 or 6 years ago. But, I was ‘OK’. I had some savings and knew how to play the market to generate income from the savings I had. So we got by. Plus I had the nerve to stay in the market, fully invested, right through the crisis. It was painful, especially since I manually track my performance, by hand, and write it in a log so that I have a record, each night.

Anyhow, this post was mainly about how stupid the so called economic experts can be. To get a key number wrong by a factor of three does take some perverse genius. And there is no shame. It is a joke.

Well, I am laughing too. This is all good. I will ONLY give you two pieces of advice. 1/ Get INTO the market, if you are not already in. 2/ Use the market to generate INCOME.

dow5yearjan2014

The amazing growth of the Dow over the last 5 years, i.e., as of mid-2008, AFTER the bloodbath we took in 2007 and the early part of 2008. Who would have thought.

Artio Global High Income Mutual Fund (BJBHX): I Bailed With Regret.

Anura Guruge, laughing, picture November 16, 2011.

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..by Anura Guruge


Last investment related post:
>> The 2012 Special Dividends: Selling Short … — Dec. 3, 2012.


I got back in in March 2013 and have stuck with
it through thick and thin.

See posts one & two.


Artio


Artio Global High Income Fund (BJBHX) is what has kept me afloat, with my head just above water, for the last 3.5 years. I adored it, sang its praises and recommended it, all the time. It WAS a great fund. Of non-institutional mutual funds (not counting the semi-cannibalistic closed end funds (CEFs) that distribute some of their capital as distributions) it had the highest monthly dividend I could find (relative to NAV), with a 0.02 variation between months. There were also period of genuine growth.

60% of my meager, severely depleted savings were in BJBHX and until last Friday (December 28, 2012), I never gave it much though. BJBHX had been ‘a keeper’. Come December I start scouring the Artio Website for their year end distributions. Yes, I found this year’s, and as ever it was a range. The minimum was 0.03 per share. Last week I called them twice trying to see if they can get me a better idea. They wouldn’t.

They paid the December 2012 dividend on the night of December 27. It was 0.03! For 12 hours I consoled myself thinking that this was just a special year end distribution and that they would do their normal monthly distribution on December 28, the 28th their usual target date for distributions. I was wrong. 0.03 was it for December.

The November distribution had been 0.07. ‘Marketwatch‘ had 0.07 as their ‘Income Dividend’. They had never been below 0.05 in all of 2012. They had never done just a 0.03 in years.

I felt raped. If they had given us a head’s up, I would not have felt so bad. I called them twice last Friday. Their telephone support isn’t in the same class as Fidelity.

I called them again yesterday and asked whether I could speak directly to a Fund representative. To their credit they said they would try and that they will try and get somebody to call me.

But, prior to the 4pm market close, I placed an order to sell all my shares in BJBHX.

The phone rang at 4:20. It was somebody from BJBHX. He was very nice. He understood my issue. It appears that due to foreign currency fluctuations BJBHX had a trading loss for the year. So rather than distributing capital gains, they had loses. The 0.03 was a reflection of that. He claimed that dividend would go back to ‘normal’ in 2013. To late. I had already sold and BJBHX has a very strict re-investment policy to protect holders against churn. So if you sell, you typically can’t get back for 30 days. It is in the prospectus. But, emotionally I am done with BJBHX, though I know that you can’t let emotions influence your investing.

I could be wrong, but as far as I can see, I cannot find another non-instutional, non 5% up-front load, ‘open’ (as opposed to ‘closed’) mutual offering monthly distributions of 0.07 per share on a $10 NAV — and I check each month on Yahoo finance, because the ‘summary’ rate quoted on sites like ‘Marketwatch‘ can be way out-of-date.

The nearest I can find is Janus High Yield, JAHYX. JAHYX is my backup. They maintain a fairly steady NAV. FHYTX and TGINX are close.

I don’t trust CEFs. Too many games for non-insiders, so to speak. So I stay away. Yes, I get tempted, but I refrain. I have good will power. Looking at some MoPay stocks. Interesting. But, bottom line, BJBHX and I have parted company.