Tag Archives: jobs

How Did The Experts Manage To Get Today’s Job Report So, So Wrong. But, I Loved It. Perfect. Goldilocks.

Anura Guruge, June 8, 2013.



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by Anura Guruge


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Monthly jobs number for the last 13 months. Dec. 2013 is the last, stunted column on the right.

Monthly jobs number for the last 13 months. Dec. 2013 is the last, stunted column on the right.

I try to watch as many job reports as I can, every Thursday for the ‘weekly unemployed’ and ‘first’ Friday of each month ‘for the household’. Given that I watch CNBC first thing in the morning this is not too hard to do. I was looking forward to today’s jobs number. I know that for a week experts were calling, unanimously, for a 200,000(+) number. I was skeptical, but was willing to go along. Unlike the experts, who now have so much egg on face, I have refused to put ANY credence on the ADP number — which comes out on the Wednesday before the Friday’s job number. I don’t trust ADP. I think they make up that number. Yet, again the experts have had to admit that the ADP number let them astray.

I don’t get these experts. For 20 years or so I was a self-employed expert — on IBM networks, IBM mainframes and enterprise networking. I was out there weekly, if not daily, making prognostications and claims. Of course I never got it all right, BUT I can’t ever remember being wrong to the scale that these experts are, month in, month out.

Just seconds before the 8:30 am jobs number today, CNBC, in their boastful way, predicted that the experts were calling for a 200,000+ number. Then the Hampton Pearson read out the number. 74,000. Though Hampton (who I like for his gravitas) was continuing you could feel the STUNNED silence in the studio. It was just like the day after Obama’s reelection. The CNBC talking heads had yet again been caught with their pants down playing with their privates on air. I just laughed.

I knew, viscerally, that the low number wasn’t bad for the market! Bad number, less tapering. So, I was cool. Yes, the Dow has gone down a bit right now but I am not at all concerned about the trajectory.

I, given that I am no longer a Republican, feel bad for the unemployed. It has to suck. The drop in the participation rate bothers me GREATLY. I should be included in that. I gave up trying to look for work 5 or 6 years ago. But, I was ‘OK’. I had some savings and knew how to play the market to generate income from the savings I had. So we got by. Plus I had the nerve to stay in the market, fully invested, right through the crisis. It was painful, especially since I manually track my performance, by hand, and write it in a log so that I have a record, each night.

Anyhow, this post was mainly about how stupid the so called economic experts can be. To get a key number wrong by a factor of three does take some perverse genius. And there is no shame. It is a joke.

Well, I am laughing too. This is all good. I will ONLY give you two pieces of advice. 1/ Get INTO the market, if you are not already in. 2/ Use the market to generate INCOME.

dow5yearjan2014

The amazing growth of the Dow over the last 5 years, i.e., as of mid-2008, AFTER the bloodbath we took in 2007 and the early part of 2008. Who would have thought.

How To Play “Atari Breakout” Video Game On Google Image Search. Today’s Productivity Sapper. Thank YOU, Google.

Dec2013x125


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by
Anura Guruge


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Pretty simple.

Just do any Google Image search, for example ‘Anura Guruge’.

Then, once the image results are displayed TYPE “Atari Breakout” in the Search Trench (field) at the Top.

Bob will then be your uncle. Enjoy.

U.S. productivity is still way too high despite all of the distractions available through the Web. We have to get it down to stimulate job hiring.

This “Atari Breakout” will definitely help. Please play for at least 4 hours today. Help the U.S. create more jobs.


Ataribreakout


Ataribreakoutcc

Disclaimer. I didn’t actually play! I was just taking the screenshot shown above. Video games don’t do much for me. So don’t bother me saying that you scored 32,000,000,000. Bully for you.


Andrew Hosmer, The Perfect Gentleman (Though A Lawyer), Wins HUGE In NH Senate District 7. Great News For NH.


Anura Guruge, laughing, picture November 16, 2011.

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by Anura Guruge


The first time I met Andrew Hosmer was at this year’s Laconia Multicultural Day when he was doing the rounds. We chatted briefly and I was hugely impressed. I introduced him to a ‘friend’ from Gilford who had lost his job at Hannaford’s. Andrew spent a lot of time talking with him. I decided that I was going to follow Andrew. I was not disappointed. Then I found out that my friend Lisa DiMartino, who also just won a seat in the NH house, was acting as Andrew’s fiscal agent. For me the deal was done. I was not just going to follow Andrew, I was going to root for him though Alton (where we live) is outside of his District 7. I am glad I did. Andrew has done all of us PROUD! Bravo. This continues to be a great, great, wonderful week for me, the family, Alton, NH, THE COUNTRY and the World. I am so happy and proud. Having folks like Lisa and Andrew in Concord is so good for the 47% — which includes us.


Andrew Hosmer introduced Dr. Jill Biden when she visited Laconia, NH on October 26, 2012.

Andrew Hosmer with Jill Biden taken by Anura Guruge

Andrew Hosmer after he had done a great job introducing Dr. Jill Biden who captivated the gathering. Please refer to link above for another picture of Andrew at this event. Click to ENLARGE.


Click to ENLARGE.


Though I knew of his company, I only knew of Andrew’s opponent from what I had read in the media, as of the September primary race. I was amazed. For there to be so much smoke around him had to mean that something was smoldering. I was worried for Andrew. His opponent, in terms of signage and letters to the Laconia Daily Sun, seemed to be on a tear.

I had a brief, private chat with Andrew after the Jill Biden visit. He assured me that he was ‘looking good. Told me not to worry. But, I still worried. I counted signs on election day as I was in and around Gilford and Laconia doing my stuff for Obama. His opponent definitely won the sign contest. But, as with Obama, this election proved that signs means NADA. If anything it was those that had the least signs that won. I am so delighted. I had 4 Obama signs stolen. But, that is OK. Obama won. Romney lost. Same with Andrew. Andrew won. The signs lost.

I saw his opponents truck, emblazoned with the name of his company, illegally parked at the Gilford voting station. Yes, I have a picture of it — but I didn’t post it because I did not want to give his company any free publicity. To me seeing his truck illegally parked said it all. I wanted Andrew to win.

Andrew won. Life is good.

I can add another ‘I WON’ to my list. How great is that?