Tag Archives: near Earth

Near-Earth Asteroid 2012 TC4 Could Give Us Quite A Headache In 2017 — Near Miss?

.Anura Guruge December 2014 thumbnail
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by Anura Guruge


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Danny Fleming, a mathematician and astronomer gave me a heads up, via e-mail, on this. Thank YOU, Danny.

2012 TC4, as the ‘2012’ in its designation denotes, was discovered in October 2012 though it is POSSIBLE that it has been around for quite some time — though maybe not in its current, very near-Earth orbit.

FG14_01

Click to ENLARGE.

It is an ‘Apollo’ class asteroid (named after the prototype asteroid in this group). Apollos, in their relentless orbit around the Sun, crosses the Earth’s orbit — twice.

Well 2012 TC4 crossed the Earth’s orbit in October 12, 2012 coming quite close to Earth. At their closest they were 58,900 miles apart. That is 1/5 the average distance between the Earth and the Moon (what we call the ‘Lunar Distance‘ (LD)). The LD as such as 0.247 LD.

5 years later, again, coincidentally on the exact date, i.e., October 12, it will get within 0.034 LD of the Earth. That is nearly 7 times closer. Yes, it could get within 8,400 miles from us. That is close.

At that distance there is a very good chance that Earth’s (fairly strong) gravitational pull will capture it and pull it in. In which case WE will get SMACKED. Thought to be about 30 yards across it is NOT a huge asteroid, not large enough to annihilate all of us. But that is still plenty big enough to wreak quite a bit of destruction, especially if it lands near a city.

Not much we can do. It is not like the Earth can duck out of the way.


This orbital chart, using the JPL Small Body Database Browser,
shows that 2012 TC4 ends up right on top of us.

2012TC4

Click to ENLARGE.


Asteroid 2012 DA14 That Will Harmlessly Fly By Earth At A Distance Of 21,200 Miles On Friday, February 15, 2013.

Dec2013x125

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by
Anura Guruge


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Though many don’t realize this I spent quite a bit of time working on astronomy, these days even at the expense of Popes and cardinals.


Artistic rendition of 2012 DA14 passing by Earth on February 15, 2013.


Orbital diagram of the flyby.


This is Way Cool.

A dynamic orbit tracker from NASA’s JPL.
Try it out if you have Java installed.
Click to access JPL. [Orbit diagram], collapsed, will be at the top. You need Java.

Click to access JPL. [Orbit diagram], collapsed, will be at the top. You need Java.


It was discovered last year, on February 23, 2012, by a Spanish observatory.

It is an Earth-crosser asteroid that orbits the Sun every 366.2 days. Since it furthest point from the Sun, aphelion is beyond Earth’s orbit, crosses Earth’s orbital path twice a year. It has been probably been doing this for millions of years, though we now have precise data going back to August 1913.

It is not very big, about 160 ft across and weighing about 180,000 tons. It would do a fair amount of damage if it were to hit the Earth. It will not do so this year! But this is a record close approach. So much so that Earth’s gravity will perturb its orbital path reducing its orbital period by 51 days. That is a big deal.

There is an increasing chance that it might actually get around to hitting the Earth post 2080 — so 67 years from now. So our kids will have to keep an eye out. Asteroids of this size do hit the Earth every 1200 years or so. We are due. DA14 would not be the end of the World. It is too small. It could destroy a city. There was smaller asteroid that entered Earth’s atmosphere, above Russia, in 1908 and exploded in the sky before hitting the ground. It destroyed about 80 million trees over a 830 square mile area,