Tag Archives: options

Time, Methinks, Given Geopolitical Bedlam, To Get Into Some Long/Short Mutual Funds.

by Anura Guruge


Click to ENLARGE. From Fidelity.


I do not have the temperament, the patience or for that matter the essential cahoonas to short stock. I also REFUSE to have ‘margins’ on my trading accounts. I will only trade using my money. SMILE. So, in 40-years of active trading, some of it manic, I have NEVER shorted a stock. Yes, I do do options, but yet again, straight uncomplicated (but creative) CALLS. I am not greedy. I have been doing this for a longtime and in the last decade or so hit my stride. SMILE.

Well, I am still going to stay LONG this year — irrespective of what transpires.

Given that I have stayed long for decades, I am not about to suddenly change my philosophy to trading. PLUS, given how long I have been long — on some ‘decent’ stock (like say ‘AMZN’) — there is really no reason for I to panic.

But, over the weekend long/short mutuals came to mind. I, as is my wont, did some extensive and frenzied research. Yep, they seem to make sense. I do NOT plan to put much in them. Probably not even 5%! In a way they are but a diversion.

Anywho, I just wanted to share my thinking & research, over the weekend, with you — as I am like that. The two mutuals identified above look ‘OK’ to I. Both have ‘higher-load’ variants — hence why you see them basically twice. Check them out if YOU too had been thinking about long/short mutuals.


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by Anura Guruge

Fidelity Investments: FINALLY An Admitted ERROR In Their Cash Balance Accounting!

by Anura Guruge


Click to ENLARGE.


I have long suspected that Fidelity’s much vaunted computer system is not as infallible as they like to claim. As someone who uses it daily, multiple times a day, I have, over the years encountered various vagaries. But, when I call up, they (i.e., Fidelity) always have an explanation.

Not so TODAY. Caught them with their pants down. Very exposed.

My balances did NOT add up. I kind of know what they are (at any given time) and what was being shown just did NOT compute. It also was not inline with what they were showing on my ‘Positions’ page.

So, I called. As always their first reaction is to gently humor you and show that they are right and you are wrong.

Not so today. He tried …. then he was stumped. It did NOT add up. You could see it clear as day. He started blathering … he had to call me back.

He did.

IT WAS AN ERROR in their system!

A few others had called too.

Had to do with today being a HOLIDAY though the stock market is open. But, option trades from last Friday are not being reconciled today because the option markets (most likely in Chicago) are closed. Hence, the error. But, it should not have happened.

They were suitably embarrassed and chastened. I finally caught them.

Ha, Ha, Ha.


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by Anura Guruge

Amazon (AMZN) $1050 Options Now Available — Scary But Exciting.

by Anura Guruge


amznoptions

Click to ENLARGE and admire here. From Fidelity.


This is scary BUT in a good way. AMZN is up about $30 in 3 days. But it closed today at $829.05.

A $1050 option 77-days from now is saying that there are those that expect it to go up $221 dollars in 77-days — a 26.7% increase.

Yes, I know that a bunch of analysts hiked the price target to $1,000.

But the possibility of $1,050 before Christmas.

That would be quite the Christmas for some. {SMILE}


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by Anura Guruge

Amazon 2Q2016 Results, July 28, Just Goldilocks — I Can’t Stop Smiling. Thank YOU, Amazon.

by Anura Guruge


amznjuly282016

From “marketwatch.com”. Click to ENLARGE and ADMIRE here.


Not only do I own a fair chunk of Amazon shares, BUT I play options on them on a 4- to 6-week basis to generate INCOME to live on. Yes, it is true that my Amazon holdings are GREATER than the value of our (rather modest and unprepossessing) house and everything else I own! That is one heck of a commitment and bet on Amazon. I can’t tell you WHEN I bought the shares BUT I have now owned them for over 18 months.

And I write options every few weeks. IF the share price went up $120 today I would have had to scramble a BIT — though that would be nothing compared to what I would have made on the stock. This is Goldilocks for I. Stock price nicely UP and my August 19 options will EXPIRE ‘nicely’ …

I guess based on this I really should treat myself to a Nikon D500 and a good lens — and, of course, buy it from Amazon Prime (with a 5% rewards payback).

I wish I could teach you how to play AMZN options. 


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by Anura Guruge


Fidelity Investments Mobile APP Not Meant For Heavy Duty Trading.

by Anura Guruge


fidelitymapp

Click to ENLARGE and view here. Screenshot from Google Play APP store. NOT MY ACCOUNT. But to be on the safe side I redacted the dollar value in case somebody thought I had that much money. I wish. Smile.


Though I have the Fidelity Investments Mobile APP for Android on my pads I do not use it that often. I don’t need to. I am on my PC enough of the time and when I travel I do not trust Wi-Fi to access any of my financial data. So most of the time when I fire up the APP it is to see whether a specific transaction, e.g., a transfer, has occurred or to get a snapshot of my positions.

Whenever I have used it, however, I have had this uneasy feeling of ‘Hhhhmmm … that is different … that is not right’!

So today, Good Friday, with the Markets closed and the ice/sleet precipitation precluding my morning run I had some spare time. I brought my Android Pad up to my desk and checked what the APP showed against what I am used to seeing on my desktop.

And the views are different. And we all know why. They have to cater for the small screen sizes on phones. But the changes are interesting. On the desktop view, the QUANTITY, is the 8th column. In the Mobile APP it is the first. Hhhmmm. Strange that. Most of us, I would have to think, typically know what the quantity we own of a position. Maybe that is just I — probably because I can only afford so few of any position. SMILE.

Since I hadn’t talked to them in weeks — and I like my regular chats with them (and they claim likewise (though they have to say that)) — I called up Fidelity. With the Markets closed I knew it would be a light day for them. Very pleasant and helpful as ever. Confirmed that the views are different.

Also confirmed something else which I suspected. While stock prices will reflect the latest OPTION prices on the APP may not be as up to-date! So if you own lost of options as I do your total account value will be different to what you see on the desktop because of the variation in option prices! Very interesting. And that explained much. I had seen that discrepancy. Now I know.

Also … The APP is not designed to let you do much serious RESEARCH. You need a desktop/laptop for that.

OK? Just wanted to share this. 


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by Anura Guruge

Another Viagra-Spike On Amazon Stock Price On February 16, 2016, After Hours.

by Anura Guruge


viagraspike222

Click to ENLARGE and goggle in wonder. From ‘marketwatch.com’ (of course).


I talked about this modern phenomenon of Viagra-effect stock charts just last week.

This one, 11.5% for all of an instant, shortly after the 4pm after hours trading is rather inexplicable. Yes, a story about Amazon’s share buyback plans flashed across the wire but that was old news from last week, rehashed. So this had to have been some kind of automated trading on the keywords ‘Amazon’ ‘stock buyback’. Somebody could have made some money if they were able to sell on the near instantaneous drop. It is crazy. But it established one thing. AMZN could shoot up to $580 — and above — in no time, just like how quickly it dropped. Just makes me shake my head.


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by Anura Guruge

These Viagra-Effect Stock Price Charts Are Hilarious & Shows Fickleness Of Market.

by Anura Guruge


viaagraeffectchart

From ‘marketwatch.com’. Click to ENLARGE and view here. Wednesday, February 10, 2016 stock market chart for Amazon.


These near vertical, if not fully vertical, stock price ‘take offs’ are getting silly — though to be fair we also see quite a few, stomach-churning vertical drops too. This is exuberant trading. The stock market in 2016 has been insane. I genuinely feel bad for those caught up in the bloodbath and THEN having to liquidate, at lows, either to pay margin calls or because they lose heart. I,as I have done for the last 8 years, will ride it out. I knew that we will see a few viagra-effect charts for AMZN, NFLX, GOOG etc. So unnecessary BUT good for us option traders. Thursday, Feb. 11 could be a good day to write some options IF this upward trend continues. 


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by Anura Guruge

Amazon Stock Price, Despite 2015 Q4 Results ‘Miss’, Unchanged Over 48 Hours!

by Anura Guruge


amazonjan29chartdsafs

AMZN chart from “marketwatch.com” on Friday, January 29, 2016 — 1:35pm. Note that current price is HIGHER than it was at 2pm on Wednesday, i.e., 48 hours ago! All of yesterday’s wild swings was ‘just in the wash’.


amazonjan29201655555
Click here
to access “marketwatch.com” original.


I said it last night. These wild, knee-jerk selling/buying of Amazon shares, is hilarious (and profitable) to watch IF you are a disciplined investor.

After-market and pre-market before Friday opening the stock was down over $85. But once the markets opened it settled at around down ~$50. BUT it had made roughly $45 on Thursday ahead of the results. As the chart above demonstrates AMZN is actually trading HIGHER than it was at 2pm on Wednesday — i.e., just 48 hours ago! So all of the last 24 hours, to long-term professional traders like I, was nothing but ‘froth’ — comes out ‘in the wash’. As I said last night it is great for option trading and I did, as is my incurable addiction, wrote two options on AMZN today. Could not resist.

Just trying to bring some sanity to bear, BUT it is OK. Somebody has to drive the stock. Enjoy.


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by Anura Guruge

Amazon 2015 Q4 Results Were OK, After Market Trading Hilarious — Analysts Estimates Are SO Bogus.

by Anura Guruge


amazonjan282016

From ‘marketwatch.com’. Click to ENLARGE and view here.


amazonanalystsdsgsgsg

From “New York Times” — see below for link to original. Click to ENLARGE and read here.

Click here to access “New York Times” original.


Amazon in 2015 Q4 had hugely impressive revenue numbers, 22% up, and made a profit of $1/share.

That is pretty damn good.

So what is the supposed problem? These numbers missed the so called ‘analysts estimates’. So bloody what? Analysts estimates are bogus. Made up. Pie-in-the-bloody-sky. They mean nothing. I have never paid any attention to analysts estimates — because the word says it all, ‘ESTIMATES’.

The after market trading was hilarious. Yes, as I have said before I own a fair number of Amazon shares. Amazon is my biggest financial holding. Even after it lost $85 (on paper) in after market I still have an investment in AMZN which is greater than the value of our house (which, of course, is a very modest dwelling). But the after market trading did not faze me in the slightest. It actually just amused me no end. Yes, I am an addicted option trader. This type of irrational volatility is a sheer boon for option traders. I feel BAd for the amateurs. They are the ones that suffer in crazy scenarios like this. Tomorrow morning so many will sell on fear. The professionals, including I, will trade that fear. I might even buy more shares.

People have to stop listening to analysts. What do they know? What did they get right over the last 40 years.

Do your own research. Play your own convictions. 


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by Anura Guruge

“Shake Shack” Adds Chicken To The Menu With “Chick’n Shack” — Yes, Yes, Yes.

by Anura Guruge


chickenshak


Though I have only, as yet, managed to eat at a ‘Shake Shack‘ once, and that was a couple of weeks ago when we were in New York, I have been shareholder of the ‘SHAK‘ since more or less the IPO — and today, as I heard on CNBC, with SHAK the bell ringers for the market open, was the one year anniversary. With the stock in the dumps (even more so than others) I am all in favor of anything to further improve the financials though to be fair the financials are not bad and from what we saw, the restaurants are mobbed.

I am in SHAK for the long haul. I am now writing options against the shares and that alone is beneficial. But adding chicken to go with the vegetarian ‘Shroom Burger is good. Love it. Can’t wait to go again.

I am happy. 


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by Anura Guruge