Tag Archives: trading

I Became An Instantaneous Oil Futures Stock Trader This Afternoon At 2:30pm.

by Anura Guruge


Click to ENLARGE & ADMIRE.


WOW! Talk about historic. Oil futures going BELOW $0.00. Oil prices, albeit in a futures contract, going below $0.00. Down to about -$32. Yes, MINUS $32.

Well, you don’t have to be Einstein to work out that they can’t be below $0.00 forever. Right?

Yes, short-term they might go down another $20. But, oil can’t stay below $0.00.

As some of you know I am a very active trader & investor. But, I have NEVER done oil before. Knew NOTHING about oil. 90% of what I do and what I have done is my sphere of experience/expertise high-tech. But, I am also uniquely equipped mentally & with the technology to do deep-dive research. And that is what I did. Flipped that magic-switch I have. Had my brain going in overdrive. Didn’t take long to work out what ETFs I needed to buy.

I had a fairly large stash of cash sitting on the sidelines just for an opportunity like this. SMILE. I pulled the trigger. No pussy-footing. I went in BIG. SMILE. V. BIG. Large trade. Now I am just going to sit back and wait. As oil demand comes back — as it has to FROM TODAY — I will be smiling even broader. This was insane.

So EASY. I am still smiling.


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by Anura Guruge

Stock Markets Being Open On Veterans Day Is Insulting — There Should Be Legislation Against It.

by Anura Guruge


Click to ENLARGE and be enraged. From “Investor’s Business Daily”. Google for plenty more.


This is just plain wrong. There is no reason or rationale for this. Schools are closed and it is a Federal holiday. But, the stocks markets are open. That is a travesty.

Yes, I am an frequent, avid and compulsive trader. Yes, I did three four trades today. Fidelity has me ranked and classed as an ‘Active Trader’ in that, per their records, I do more than 150 trades a year. BUT, I would be FINE, just fine if the stock markets were closed on Veterans Day. There is no need for them to be open. The global financial world would NOT crumble if the NYSE & NASDAQ were closed for two days in November — the other, of course, being Thanksgiving.

I am surprised that this has not been dealt with before. Time for this to end.


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by Anura Guruge


 

I Am NOT In Favor Of ‘Commission Free’ (i.e., FREE) Stock Trading!

by Anura Guruge


Click to ENLARGE. From ‘Yahoo Finance’. Google for more.


If you are worried about a $4.98 commission when making a stock trade (and I think $4.98 is what Fidelity charges I) then you should NOT be making that trade!

With online trading commissions are NOT what they used to be. Yes, I remember having to pay $70 to $80 per trade. That gave you pause, but again, in the end you were hoping to make thousands so even $80 would be a rounding error.

Then, with online trading, it became … $14.xx … $7.95 … and now $4.98.

$4.98.

I am HAPPY to give Fidelity $4.98 per trade, for all the services I get.

I will also, happily, make two concessions as to when a trade should/could be free.

  1. I am a great believer in kids getting into stock (and I have had lot of success with this, even helping kids who are not mine). So, I am all in favor that kids should be allowed to trade for free. Basically make UTMA (or equivalent) accounts — i.e., accounts involving those under 18 — commission free. That will be a winner.
  2. Also give those making ‘small’ trades a break. But, since folks invariably will try and abuse this, since folks are cheap, it will have to be restricted to one free trade a day. So, something like one $1,000 (or less) trade per day free, or one trade (per day) involving 30 shares or less.
    ….

So, why am I opposed to free trading. Because, I am old & savvy enough to know that there are NO free lunches. When brokerage house offer free trading they are going to be loosing millions if not billions in income! True statement. So, how are they going to make up for that.

First they will cut services. Yes, good folks will lose jobs. It will also mean that you will not be able to talk to a human. So, the elimination of services is my greatest fear. I get outstanding service from Fidelity. I would hate to see that not be the case.

Second, they are going to start hounding you to sell you services. You will get even more calls and e-mails offering this and that. They have to recoup the money they are losing. It will be ugly. To be honest it will not affect I! Fidelity, quite a long time ago, stopped trying to sell me anything. They know — and they can see — that I do very well on my own. So, they stopped calling me. But, it won’t stop them calling YOU.

There is another reason too. It will just further encourage foolish, mindless trading! I really hate that. Folks that buy and sell with no rhyme or reason. Panic and sell when the market is going down and then turning around buying the same stock when the market has gone up. They could save themselves so much money buy just buying and holding. My core stock portfolio has not changed since 2012. 7-years. SMILE. Yes, I have held the same stock for 7-years. SMILE.

So, that is my piece on this.


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by Anura Guruge


 

9:30am (Eastern) Was THE Time To ‘Buy’ Post Brexit ‘Leave’ Vote. SMILE.

by Anura Guruge


crmpostbrexit

Chart for “Salesforce.com” (CRM), on June 24, 2016 — day after Brexit. From “marketwatch.com” of course — who else? Click to ENLARGE and marvel.


I stayed up till 1:30am (Eastern) watching the Referendum results, LIVE, on BBC 1 on my Roku, “UK TV” channel. [To my disappointment BBC election coverage came across as primitive compared to what we have got used to in the U.S.!]

I was surprised by the result and I really do have genuine, mixed feelings. I am not wildly euphoric that we voted, in a non-binding referendum, to LEAVE — though, deep, deep down, my sentiments are with LEAVE, which is how I voted, 41 years ago in the 1st Referendum.

I don’t believe that this is a done deal and a lot of water will flow under the collectives bridges of the EU before we see anything definitive 2.5 years, minimum, from now.

That the markets reacted the way they did was hilarious to I. It is crazy. Why sell stock today? What has changed?

But I was glad. I had been waiting, biding my time, for a pullback of this magnitude. SMILE. That is what clever investing is all about.

Was on Fidelity at 9:30am. I had NOT factored in that Fidelity would be slow! I should have remembered from past days like this. But it wasn’t too bad.

I wanted to buy more “salesforce.com” (CRM) and “Facebook” (FB) shares — some for the kids. Got it done. I was all done by 9:35am.

Why would AMZN go down $20 in the day? How will Brexit impact AMZN? I don’t think it will. Strangely AMZN options, my bread-and-butter, were not cooperating. Shame. But that is OK. I am not greedy, never was.

More on my feelings on Brexit in another post.

But for now, SMILE. SMILE. SMILE.

P.S., If Scotland AGAIN tries to break away I will be beyond bummed. 


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by Anura Guruge

Another Viagra-Spike On Amazon Stock Price On February 16, 2016, After Hours.

by Anura Guruge


viagraspike222

Click to ENLARGE and goggle in wonder. From ‘marketwatch.com’ (of course).


I talked about this modern phenomenon of Viagra-effect stock charts just last week.

This one, 11.5% for all of an instant, shortly after the 4pm after hours trading is rather inexplicable. Yes, a story about Amazon’s share buyback plans flashed across the wire but that was old news from last week, rehashed. So this had to have been some kind of automated trading on the keywords ‘Amazon’ ‘stock buyback’. Somebody could have made some money if they were able to sell on the near instantaneous drop. It is crazy. But it established one thing. AMZN could shoot up to $580 — and above — in no time, just like how quickly it dropped. Just makes me shake my head.


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by Anura Guruge

These Viagra-Effect Stock Price Charts Are Hilarious & Shows Fickleness Of Market.

by Anura Guruge


viaagraeffectchart

From ‘marketwatch.com’. Click to ENLARGE and view here. Wednesday, February 10, 2016 stock market chart for Amazon.


These near vertical, if not fully vertical, stock price ‘take offs’ are getting silly — though to be fair we also see quite a few, stomach-churning vertical drops too. This is exuberant trading. The stock market in 2016 has been insane. I genuinely feel bad for those caught up in the bloodbath and THEN having to liquidate, at lows, either to pay margin calls or because they lose heart. I,as I have done for the last 8 years, will ride it out. I knew that we will see a few viagra-effect charts for AMZN, NFLX, GOOG etc. So unnecessary BUT good for us option traders. Thursday, Feb. 11 could be a good day to write some options IF this upward trend continues. 


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by Anura Guruge

Amazon Stock Price, Despite 2015 Q4 Results ‘Miss’, Unchanged Over 48 Hours!

by Anura Guruge


amazonjan29chartdsafs

AMZN chart from “marketwatch.com” on Friday, January 29, 2016 — 1:35pm. Note that current price is HIGHER than it was at 2pm on Wednesday, i.e., 48 hours ago! All of yesterday’s wild swings was ‘just in the wash’.


amazonjan29201655555
Click here
to access “marketwatch.com” original.


I said it last night. These wild, knee-jerk selling/buying of Amazon shares, is hilarious (and profitable) to watch IF you are a disciplined investor.

After-market and pre-market before Friday opening the stock was down over $85. But once the markets opened it settled at around down ~$50. BUT it had made roughly $45 on Thursday ahead of the results. As the chart above demonstrates AMZN is actually trading HIGHER than it was at 2pm on Wednesday — i.e., just 48 hours ago! So all of the last 24 hours, to long-term professional traders like I, was nothing but ‘froth’ — comes out ‘in the wash’. As I said last night it is great for option trading and I did, as is my incurable addiction, wrote two options on AMZN today. Could not resist.

Just trying to bring some sanity to bear, BUT it is OK. Somebody has to drive the stock. Enjoy.


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by Anura Guruge

Amazon 2015 Q4 Results Were OK, After Market Trading Hilarious — Analysts Estimates Are SO Bogus.

by Anura Guruge


amazonjan282016

From ‘marketwatch.com’. Click to ENLARGE and view here.


amazonanalystsdsgsgsg

From “New York Times” — see below for link to original. Click to ENLARGE and read here.

Click here to access “New York Times” original.


Amazon in 2015 Q4 had hugely impressive revenue numbers, 22% up, and made a profit of $1/share.

That is pretty damn good.

So what is the supposed problem? These numbers missed the so called ‘analysts estimates’. So bloody what? Analysts estimates are bogus. Made up. Pie-in-the-bloody-sky. They mean nothing. I have never paid any attention to analysts estimates — because the word says it all, ‘ESTIMATES’.

The after market trading was hilarious. Yes, as I have said before I own a fair number of Amazon shares. Amazon is my biggest financial holding. Even after it lost $85 (on paper) in after market I still have an investment in AMZN which is greater than the value of our house (which, of course, is a very modest dwelling). But the after market trading did not faze me in the slightest. It actually just amused me no end. Yes, I am an addicted option trader. This type of irrational volatility is a sheer boon for option traders. I feel BAd for the amateurs. They are the ones that suffer in crazy scenarios like this. Tomorrow morning so many will sell on fear. The professionals, including I, will trade that fear. I might even buy more shares.

People have to stop listening to analysts. What do they know? What did they get right over the last 40 years.

Do your own research. Play your own convictions. 


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by Anura Guruge

I Am Not Sure I Want Amazon (AMZN) Stock To Split Though It Appears Predestined Already.

.Anura Guruge December 2014 thumbnail
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by Anura Guruge


Related posts:amazonsubs
>> Amazon Hoverboards ….
>> Prime TV subscription prices.
>>
Amazon Prime is worth it.
>>
 “Downton Abbey”.
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 “Mr. Selfridge”.

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amznstocksplit

Click to access ‘MarketWatch.com’ original.


When Netflix (NFLX) and Apple (APPL) split.
Charts from Yahoo finance. Click to ENLARGE.

nflxsplit

aaplsplit


With over 30 years of investing behind me I am now savvy enough to know that stock splits — or even reverse stock splits — don’t change the essential economic or operational dynamics of the underlying company. Splits are essentially artificial and contrived mechanisms to rejig the price of  a stock into a more ‘acceptable’ trading range.

I, as a proud and v. happy Amazon shareholder, expect AMZN to be approaching $800 by March 2016 — and my very active, even frenzied, option trading on AMZN reflects that. SMILE.

And for the last few weeks I have realized, innately, that an AMZN stock split could be likely, as was the case with APPL and NFLX, when the price gets into the $700 range.

But a AMZN stock split does NOT fill me with joy. Yes, even a 3-for-1 split would ensure that I would be able to claim that I own thousands of AMZN shares — and yes, that would further increase my stock option trading options (if you know what I mean). SMILE.

But, after years of pondering, the split-issue I finally have a concrete answer as to why I do NOT like splits of EXPENSIVE stock — like AMZN.

It brings in the WRONG CLASS of investor!

Sorry. It is not a question of being snobbish, it is a matter of safeguarding one’s assets.

At $600 – $700 you can keep away the casual, uninformed (if not totally clueless) retail investor. And that means you don’t get silly gyrations.

At $70 everybody and their dog thinks that they can own 100 shares — and then we get into the knee-jerk, totally irrational trading.

IF you study the NFLX chart, carefully, you will see that the split didn’t do the serious, long-term investors, such as I, any favors — though it made option trading more exciting.

I am fairly resigned to the fact that AMZN will most likely split in 2016. Yes, I will play options like crazy around the split since there will always be the totally meaningless SPIKE in price ahead of and just after the split. Well, you can’t win them all.


eBay PayPal (PYPLV) Split — ‘Ex-Div’ Date Monday, July 20, 2015 — Strictly Dollar-for-Dollar Split

PayPal, PVPLV, symbol

New PayPal, PVPLV, symbol. Already trading on a nominal basis — till Monday, July 20, 2015. Click to access ‘MarketWatch’ coverage.

.Anura Guruge December 2014 thumbnail
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by Anura Guruge


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ebaypaypal

eBay chart. Click to access ‘MarketWatch’ coverage.

The PayPal spinoff from eBay takes place at ‘midnight’ this Friday, July 17, 2015. But the ‘ex-div’ date is July 20.

So you can still buy eBay shares TODAY, Wednesday, July 15, 2015, and get the PayPal spinoff — PYPLV.

PYPLV is ‘trading’ now BUT there are NO shares available. So you are essentially pre-buying the shares!

I owned a few eBay from years back. So I will get some PYPLV on Monday whether I want them or not. I want them. I actually just bought a couple more eBay shares. Way I see it, it is the best way to get into PYPLV.

The split on Monday will be ‘dollar-for-dollar’. Both eBay and PYPLV are trading. So if eBay on Monday is $66 and PYPLV is at $34 — after the split PYPLV will remain (for a few nanoseconds) at $34 and eBay will start off at $32. Essentially OLD $eBay = NEW $eBay + $PYPLV. Got that?